黑天鹅不断的2020年 吉姆·罗杰斯：结果比2008年糟糕但可能好于1929

　　罗杰斯精彩语录：

　　这次危机会比2008年全球金融危机更糟糕。如果全世界的政客都不明智，那么这次危机比30年代那次还要严重是有可能的。

　　立即停止对市场的干预，不要再借那么多的债，让市场机制发挥作用，让那些有意愿、有能力解决问题的人到他们该去的位置上，让一切重新开始，麻烦才会尽早结束。

　　隔离不是一件好事，应对此次疫情还有其他解决方案。

　　我持有不少美元和人民币现金 ，刚买入了黄金和白银，农产品(行情000061,诊股)商品的机会也不错。

　　现在不仅通过B股、H股以及美国上市的中概股持有中国资产，我也持有A股了，加仓中国红酒公司

　　投资不是容易的事，认为投资很容易的人还是别做投资了，趁早转行吧。投资赚钱是很难的，对投资要有足够的耐心。

　　新冠肺炎疫情、“石油战”、全球市场暴跌、原油期货“负价格”……2020年全球市场“黑天鹅”不断。如果有人听从了美国著名投资人吉姆·罗杰斯四五年前的建议，或许遇到的麻烦会少一些，因为他那时就呼吁投资者要警惕新一轮全球经济危机的出现。

　　2020年4月20日上午10时，在《红周刊》演播室，我们连线了在新加坡居家隔离（新加坡政府要求所有居民4月7日~5月4日居家隔离）中的吉姆·罗杰斯。在专访中，罗杰斯表示，当前世界各国债台高筑是引发他担忧的主要原因，“2008年拥有大量货币储备的中国救了全世界，但这次中国自身也有不少债务。”在他的预期中，这将是他有生以来遭遇的最糟糕的熊市。“虽然现在还没有体现，但最终结果一定会比2008年更糟糕，但可能好于1929年。”

　　对于当前各国央行“撒钱救市”的举措，他认为，这只会让市场变得更差，美股多年牛市正在走向终结。但同时，他仍坚定看好中国资产。他在采访中透露，上周刚加仓了一家中国红酒公司，对于自己持有的中国航空公司资产也没有卖出的打算，如果出现有利条件还会加仓。“中国是21世纪最伟大的国家并不仅是口头说说，我的两个女儿都在学习中文，我用实践在表达我对中国的看好。”

　　他提醒所有投资者，未来两三年可能很多人会损失很多钱。

　　以下为中英文对话实录节选：

　　《红周刊》：罗杰斯先生，您好！很荣幸能够邀请到您，做客我们“面对面”独家深度专访节目。

　　Weekly on Stocks: Hi Mr. Rogers! It is a great honor to have youwith us for an exclusive in-depth interview on “Face to Face”.

　　罗杰斯：我非常高兴来参加此次采访。我很久没有见过你们了，所以真的很高兴。我还清晰地记得早在2004年参加你们首届“国际投资大师讲坛”，那会儿我比现在年轻多了。那是一段很愉快的经历，也让我更加深入的了解了中国。

　　Rogers:I’m very delighted to be here. I haven’t seen you for a long time， so I’mreally haPPy. In 2004, I participated in your first international MastersForum； I was much younger back then. That’s a wonderful experience， making meknow better about China.

　　《红周刊》：您作为我们《红周刊》的荣誉顾问，10多年来也给予我们很多指导和支持，我们对此心怀感激。

　　Weekly on Stocks: We are grateful for the guidance and support youhave given us over the past 1decade as our honorary advisor at Weekly onStocks.

　　罗杰斯：谢谢你们，谢谢大家。

　　Rogers:Thank you， thank all of you.

　　《红周刊》：首先希望跟您探讨全球疫情以及全球市场大幅调整的问题，新冠肺炎疫情也影响您的生活了吧？

　　Weekly on Stocks: First ofall， I would like to discuss with you about the global pandemic and the major correctionof global market. Has the outbreak of COVID-19 also affected your life？

　　罗杰斯：的确，新冠肺炎已经成为全球大流行病。我的生活也受到了影响，我现在只能待在新加坡的家里，不能去中国，也不能去其他任何地方。现在有一些中国股票是让我很感兴趣的，或许将来我会去买它们，但现在我没有办法亲自去了解它们。

　　Rogers: Indeed， the disease has become aglobal pandemic. My life is also affected. I have to stay at home in Singapore.I can’t go to China or anywhere else. There are some Chinese stocks I’m veryinterested in， but at present I can’t go to check them. Maybe I’ll buy themlater.

　　《红周刊》：全球经济因为疫情遭受重创，您在四五年前就提醒投资者“新一轮的全球性经济危机未来几年将会爆发。”现在这轮经济危机是您预想的那样吗？

　　Weekly on Stocks: The global economy was hit hard by the outbreak，and you warned investors four or five years ago that “another global economiccrisis will be triggered in the next few years.” Is the current economic crisisas what you expected？

　　罗杰斯：我当时说，如果下一轮经济危机到来，将会是我有生以来经历最糟糕的一次。我判断的理由是，2008年的经济危机爆发的理由是当时全球负债水平非常高。可据我观察，2008年以来，世界各国或地区的负债水平不减反增，债务问题日益严重。所以我说，一旦再出现经济危机，我们将会陷入非常可怕的境地。现在的市场已经应验了。

　　Rogers: What I said was， when we haveanother economic crisis， it is going to be the worst in my lifetime. The reasonwas， the economic crisis of 2008 was due to a high global debt. For what I cansee， the debt has been surging rather than reducing since then. So， if anothercrisis comes up， it will to be horrible. And it is.

　　《红周刊》：我们可以就此判断美股十多年的牛市已经走到头了吗？

　　Weekly on Stocks: Can we conclude that the decade-long bull marketin U.S. stocks is over？

　　罗杰斯：目前看，美股牛市大概率已经结束了，或者说离结束的日期不远了。受美国政府以及世界各地政府疯狂的“砸钱”，加印钞票，股票市场出现了止跌回升。这种情况或许可以持续一段时间，因为有非常多的资金注入了市场，但这可能只是一次回光返照。

　　Rogers:Yes， the bull market is drawing to aclose， or maybe it’s already ended. Since the US government and other nationalgovernments have been spending and printing huge amount of money， we’re havinga rally in shares on the stock market. This situation may go on for a while，because so much money has been pumped into the market. But this will be thelast rally before the emerging storm.

　　《红周刊》：巴菲特近期表示，今年股市的调整并不像1987年或者2008年那么糟糕，这和您的观点似乎相差较远。

　　Weekly on Stocks: Buffett recently said that this year’s correctionof the stock market isn’t as bad as that in 1987 or 2008, which seems quite farfrom your point of view.

　　罗杰斯：在这场危机结束以前，我相信它会比2008年那次更糟糕，只是现在还没有表现出来而已。毕竟现在刚刚过去六个星期，股市目前的调整只是减缓了一些。

　　Rogers:No， this crisis is going to be worsethan that of 2008 before it’s over. It has not been yet， but it will be. Afterall， it’s only been six weeks. Now the turbulence of the market is onlytemporarily lessened.

　　《红周刊》：那么这次全球经济衰退会像1929年全球市场大萧条那样严重吗？

　　Weekly on Stocks: So， will this global economic recession be assevere as the Great Depression in 1929？

　　罗杰斯：我觉得这次危机倒不见得像上世纪30年代大危机那样严重，尽管不能完全排除这种可能。这取决于这样几大因素：首先目前全球债务问题实在是太严重了。其次，在20世纪30年代，由于美国、欧洲等政客们有许多错误决策，才导致了那次大萧条。而现在他们依然可能会犯错误，有些人已经开始（犯错）了。例如，美国正在做一些错误决定，新加坡也是，还有其他国家……如果说中国的话，它应该变得更开放。就是说，如果全世界的政客都不明智，那么这次危机比30年代那次还要严重是有可能的。

　　但现在来看，还没到那个地步。

　　Rogers:I doubt it will be as severe as the Great Depression， but it could be. First，the world is drowning in debt. Second， we had the Great Depression becausepoliticians made mistakes， and they may make mistakes again. As I can see，they’re beginning to make mistakes. Governments of the US and Singapore aremaking mistakes； other countries may follow them. As for China， it’s marketshould be more open. If politicians don’t make wise decisions， then we’ll havea crisis worse than the Great Depression.

　　Ofcourse， we haven’t gone that far by now.

　　《红周刊》：您所说的错误应该包含各国央行不断“放水”吧？

　　Weekly on Stocks: The mistakesyou mentioned should include the continuous “liquidity injections” by centralbanks in various countries， right？

　　罗杰斯：（央行放水）只是各种错误中的一个。美国政府推出了2万亿财政刺激计划，央行则在加印数万亿美元的纸币。这个数量级真的非常可怕，负债将会突破天际，所以后果也将是难以承受的。短期内或许还好，因为今年总统大选将在11月份举行，所以在大选结束以前问题或许不会显现。不过在那以后，这些天量债务导致的问题就会出现，无论对美国还是其他的国家来说，都将是一场噩梦。

　　Rogers:That’s one of the mistakes. The US government approved the $2-trillion stimuluspackage while the central bank is printing another several trillion dollars.It’s staggering amount of money. The debt is soaring extremely high， so theconsequence will be terrible. Maybe we’ll be OK for a few months， because theelection is in November. We may be OK until then； but with all the debt， wewon’t hold out much longer. It will be a nightmare for the US and othercountries.

　　《红周刊》：如果各国央行不“印钞”，让市场通过“自我修正机制”来恢复，后果会比现在更好还是更糟糕？

　　Weekly on Stocks: Would theconsequences be better or worse if let the market recover through aself-correcting mechanism instead of banknote printing？

　　罗杰斯：从长远来看，让市场自我调节是更有好处的。政府采取救济行为以便事态不会失控，但这些一时的救济只会导致问题积累得越来越严重。2008年经济危机中，政府出手干预没有让市场崩溃，事态也的确变好了。但到了今天，债务已经积累得太高了。在2008、2009年，可能有些人没有为此付出代价，所以当问题再一次出现时，后果将会更加严重。

　　早在2008年危机的时候，就应该让事态自然发展。尽管当时的情况会很糟糕，但是至少当整个市场出清之后，事情就会真正变好。历来都是这样的，许多国家都经历过这种事情，包括美国。经济体系崩溃而后重新洗牌，之后的一两年会很难熬，但事情会越来越好。以美国目前对市场的做法来说，是治标不治本的，从长期来看没有好处。

　　Rogers:Itwill be better in the long run. The US government props the market up to avoida breakdown； but with the accumulating debt， the breakdown is unavoidable， andit’ll be much more worsened. In 2008, the market didn’t collapse， and now wehave an all-time high debt. Nobody paid the price in 2008 and 2009, so when wehave the next problem， it’s going to be more serious.

　　It would have been better to let things swelled up in 2008. Thoughit would be terrible， temporarily， but if we cleaned out the system， therewould be a new dawn. It’s what happened on the history. Many countries，including the US， have cleaned out the system. We had pain for a year or two，then we prosper. What the US government is doing is not good in the long run.

　　《红周刊》：您预计此次调整真正结束的时间是什么时候？

　　Weekly on Stocks: When do youexpect the real end of this correction？

　　罗杰斯：这次全球调整将会持续很久。按以往经验来说，一般会持续一年至一年半。这段时间内我们会感到很痛苦，然后事态逐步得到改善。但我还是想强调一下，因为当前全球严重的债务水平比之前提高了很多，所以恢复起来会更艰难。

　　在2008年经济危机中，中国还有很多货币储备来应对困难时期。危机到来时，中国用这些钱救了自己，也帮助了世界。现在中国自身也有负债，所以对全球来说这一次危机都不会好过。看看吧，世界各国都是债台高筑。

　　Rogers:It will last long. Usually we need a year or a year and a half to tide over thestorm. We’ll suffer then start over. But remember， we are having an all-timehigh debt， so this time， it’s going to take long to recover. It’ll be very hardfor us.

　　Inthe crisis of 2008, China saved a lot of money for the rainy day. When it startedto rain，China saved itself and helped the whole world by those money.However，China is also in debt now. All the countries are drowning in debt， so thecrisis will be very hard to solve.

　　《红周刊》：那在您看来，哪些因素或者措施会促使其尽早结束呢？

　　Weekly on Stocks: In youropinion， what are the factors or measures that will prompt it to end as earlyas possible？

　　罗杰斯：立即停止对市场的干预，不要再借那么多的债，让市场机制发挥作用，让那些有意愿、有能力解决问题的人到他们该去的位置上，让一切重新开始。当一些人陷入麻烦时，有才智的人会来接手他们的资产，重新运作，让事态重获好的出发点。历来如此，这是市场机制的运作方式。然而，无论是在东方还是西方，现在人们都不想这样做。强硬干预带来的结果是，资产没有被给到那些有才智的人手里，而是给到了那些无法胜任的人手里，并且让那些无法胜任的人继续和有才智的人——完全是用自己的钱——来展开竞争。

　　这很荒谬。这使得我们无法清理整个经济系统，以让它正常运转。清理过程就像一场山火，你身在其中时会觉得十分可怕，但山火会烧掉那些坏木头和一些灌木丛。在这场火之后，森林也会长得比之前更好。经济衰退就是要靠这样的方式复原的，从来都是如此。不过现在美国和西方不愿意面对这样的事，所以情况变得越来越糟糕。

　　Rogers:We need to stop intervening the market and owing so much debt. Let the markettake its own course. Let the competent people fill where they may fill. Thenwe’ll start over. That’s how the mechanism is supposed to work. When somepeople get into trouble， other competent people will come to take over theassets from them， reorganizing the market and making it start over from a soundbase. It has always been so. But now， things are going on the other way allaround the world. With too much intervening， the assets are taken away from thecompetent people and left for the incompetent people； the competent people haveto cope with their own money.

　　It’sabsurd. We can’t clean out the system by this way. What we need is a “forestfire”. A forest fire is horrible if you are in it. But it cleans out badwood and underbrush， then the forest can grow even better afterwards. That iswhat recessions do through history all over the world. However， theUS and the West don’t want to face a breakdown， so the problem is getting worseand worse.

　　《红周刊》：作为此次市场调整的另一大“黑天鹅”，沙特和俄罗斯等国家的“石油战”有缓和的迹象，这是否有助于加速市场从熊市氛围中走出来？

　　Weekly on Stocks: As another “blackswan” in this market correction， the “oil price war” between countries such asSaudi Arabia and Russia is showing signs of mitigation. Would this help toaccelerate the market out of the bear market atmosphere？

　　罗杰斯：石油价格战对大量使用石油的国家当然是有好处的，比如德国和日本。对韩国等世界上的许多国家也都有好处，但对沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯而言却并非好事。

　　Rogers: The oil price war is certainlygood for countries that use a lot of oil， such as Germany and Japan. It is alsogood for many countries in the world， including South Korea， but definitely notgood for Saudi Arabia and Russia.

　　《红周刊》：原油价格今年曾下探到18美元/桶的价格，您如何看未来原油价格的发展趋势？

　　Weekly on Stocks: The crudeoil price has dipped to $18/bbl. this year. What do you think of thedevelopment trend of crude oil price in the future？

　　罗杰斯：现在的石油价格不是史上最低，但的确是很长一段时间以来的最低价。从原油价格规律来看，受各种复杂原因影响，油价出现触底；然后恢复一段时间，随后下探到一个更低点；然后再慢慢攀升，不断循环。无论是2008年还是现在，都符合这个规律。

　　Rogers: The current oil price is not thelowest in history， but it is the lowest for a long time. From the rule of crudeoil prices， affected by various complex reasons， oil prices hit bottom； thenafter being recovered for a while， it will dip to a lower point； then it willgo up slowly and keep going like this. Whether in 2008 or now， this is therule.

　　《红周刊》：周一（4月20日），NYMEX原油期货2005（5月合约）报收于每桶-37.63美元，自1983年开始交易以来首次出现负值。您认为是什么原因导致“负价格”这种极端情况的出现？

　　Weekly on Stocks: On Monday （April 20）， NYMEX crude futures for May2005 closed at -$37.63 a barrel， the first time since trading began in 1983 that thetransaction has turned negative. What do you think causes the extreme situationof “negative price”？

　　罗杰斯：很简单，这是期货市场的反常现象，这个价格你不能买石油。期货市场规定，在特定的日子必须进行交割。有人付钱给你，你就要交割石油。但是现在，所有储油的地方都装满了油。因此，无论是什么价格都没人想买石油。而期货市场的大多数参与者只是买卖石油，而不消费石油。所以，突然一下，有一车石油要运来了，我们必须把它处理掉。他们不得不赶紧抛售。最后，他们付钱给别人来把石油拉走，因为芝加哥和其他市场的参与者不可能接收这些石油，就像前面说的许多储油罐都装满了。这种情况后续还会发生。但显然发生的概率小了很多。

　　所以，这个故事的教训是，你应该马上去成立一家储油罐公司。你可以把储油罐租出去，大赚一笔（笑）。

　　Rogers:It’s very simple. This is an aberration in the futures market. You can’t buyoil at this price. In the futures markets， you have to deliver the oil on acertain day. When someone pays you， you deliver the oil. But now， all theplaces for oil storage are full； no one wants to buy oil even at a very lowprice. Most participants in the futures market just buy and sell oil， but notuse it. So， when there’s a truckload of oil going to come all of a sudden， wegot to get rid of it. They had to dump it hurriedly. In the end， they paidsomebody else to take the oil away， because participants in Chicago and othermarkets were in no position to take the oil. As mentioned before， many of theoil storage tanks were already full. It can happen again. But it’s obviouslymuch less likely to happen.

　　So，the lesson from this story is that you should go and start a company of storagetanks right away. You can rent out the tanks and make a lot of money （Laugh）.

　　《红周刊》：其实，布伦特原油6月份期货合约近期内将要进行结算，有没有可能也会出现再次下跌甚至负值？

　　Weekly on Stocks: In fact， theBrent crude oil futures contract in June is to be settled in the near future.Is there any chance that it will fall again or even go negative？

　　罗杰斯：我不知道，也许你们的节目可以告诉我答案（笑）。市场现在肯定是有所准备了，“负价格”对所有人来说都是一个意料之外的事情，没有人想得到，因为以往从来没发生过。但是，现在包括交易所，包括那些或许想低价买入石油的人都有所准备了。如果他们看到有人必须要抛售石油，就会有人出来买，有些人仍然需要消费石油。所以，我们等着看吧。这对你（记者）来说是好事，因为你有了报道的素材。

　　Rogers:I don't know. Maybe your show can tell me the answer （Laugh）. The market iscertainly better prepared now. “Negative price” came as a big surprise toeveryone. No one wants it， for it never happened before. But now exchanges，including those who might want to buy oil at low prices， have got ready. Ifthey see someone has to dump the oil， someone may buy it， and some people douse oil still. So， we’ll see. It’s good for you （reporters）， because you havesomething to report.

　　《红周刊》：原油期货都出现“负价格”这种极端情况了，我们能否据此认为，全球市场前景变得更加不确定了？

　　Weekly on Stocks: Such extremesituation like “negative price” has occurred to crude oil futures， can weassume that the outlook for global markets has become more uncertain？

　　罗杰斯：当然，这意味着有些石油公司和石油钻探公司会破产。水力压裂（页岩油）行业的情况很糟糕，有些石油公司负债很高，它们的日子也不会好过。我说过，在沙特阿拉伯、科威特、苏丹等严重依赖石油或油价的国家，你会看到更多的问题，例如企业破产。在航运业，目前有一家很大的新加坡的公司已经破产了，原因是它们完全没料到油价会下跌。所以，经济肯定会受到影响，股市也会反映出来。但要记住，有人会乐见油价下跌。如果你是韩国人，你会觉得这是好消息。如果你是中国人，你也会觉得这是好消息。这对新加坡人也是好消息，但破产的这家公司除外。

　　Rogers:Of course， this means that some oil companies and oil drilling companies aregoing to go bankrupt. It’s a very bad situation for the hydraulic fracturing（shale oil） industry， and some of the oil companies are heavily indebted andthey are going to have a hard time. As I said， in the countries like SaudiArabia， Kuwait， Sudan which depend largely on oil or the oil price， you aregoing to see more problems， such as bankruptcies. In the shipping industry， alarge Singaporean company has gone bankrupt because it did not expect the oilprice to fall. Thus， it’s having ramifications in the economy， and that willalso have a reflection in the stock market. But remember， there are some peoplewho love to see this. If you are Korean， you would think this is wonderful. Ifyou are Chinese， you will also think this is wonderful. It is also great forSingaporeans， except for the company that went bankrupt.

　　《红周刊》：英国卫报发表观点认为，如果世界各地迅速结束“隔离”，将加速石油市场价格的复苏。这个判断是否乐观了？

　　Weekly on Stocks: A swift endto “isolation” around the world could accelerate a recovery in oil marketprices， according to The Guardian. Is that over-optimistic？

　　罗杰斯：不，我不觉得这个观点过于乐观。在我看来，隔离是个错误。我们以前也经历过恐慌和流行病。你知道，我们经历过非典。2009年我们经历过H1N1禽流感。在H1N1禽流感期间，美国经济没有封锁。不可否认，病毒的确会对人们的健康带来影响，但历史证明，人们学会了适应。新加坡全面隔离，但疫情更严重了，因为人们全都挤在一起。所以，在我看来，隔离不是一件好事。而且，一旦经济重新开放，所有东西的需求都会上升。例如，我们看到，奥地利正在解封，但瑞典始终没有“封国”“封城”。所以，不一定要封锁，应对此次疫情还有其他解决方案。

　　Rogers:No， I don’t think that’s over-optimistic. In my opinion， isolation is amistake. We’ve had panics and epidemics before. You know， we had SARS. We hadthe H1N1 avian influenza in 2009. When we had the H1N1, the U.S. economy wasnot locked down. There is no denying that viruses do have an impact on people’shealth， but history shows that people have learnt to adapt. Singapore wascompletely isolated， but it got worse because everyone has packed in together.So， in my opinion， isolation is not a good thing.Andonce the economy reopened， the demand for everything would rise. We see， forexample， that Austria is lifting the lockdown， but Sweden never conducts the “lockdown”of the country and its cities. So， it doesn’t have to be a lockdown. There areother solutions as well.

　　《红周刊》：在您看来，现在是买入原油期货的好时机吗？如果您要买入的话，您会选择在什么时点呢？

　　Weekly on Stocks: In youropinion， is it the good timing to buy in crude oil futures？ If you were to buy，when would you choose to buy it？

　　罗杰斯：现在石油崩盘了，市场非常混乱。通常，在任何国家的任何市场，有这样的事情发生时，如果你知道自己在做什么并买入了，你可能会经历一段时间的动荡难熬期，但最终都会没事。

　　Rogers:Now the oil has crashed and the market is in chaos. Usually， in any market inany country， when such thing occurs， if you know what you are doing and you buyin， you might go through a turbulent period for a while， but eventually youwill be fine.

　　恐慌和流行病不会永远持续下去。封锁不会永远持续下去。所以，我们还会开车，我们还会搭乘飞机。所以，如果你进场，我可能也会进场。我现在没有进场是因为我在做别的事情。如果我不是太懒，我也许应该进场或思考何时及如何进场买入，来投资这个行业。因为目前存在恐慌，而如果你在恐慌的时候买入，你总能赚钱。

　　Panics and pandemics are not going to lastforever.Closures are not going to lastforever. So， we are going to drive again， we are going to take airplanes again.If you step in， I might do it. I’m not doing it today because I’m doing otherthings. But If I were not so lazy， I probably should be stepping in or figuringabout when and how to step in and buy， making investments in this sector. Because there is apanic and whenever you buy during a panic， you can always do well.

　　《红周刊》：就像巴菲特所说的赶在恐惧的时候去“贪婪”。

　　Weekly on Stocks: To be “greedy”in a time of fearful， as Warren Buffett said.

　　罗杰斯：巴菲特用的是恐惧，我用的是恐慌，基本上是一个意思。

　　Rogers: He used the word “fearful”. I usethe word “panic”. Basically， it’s the same approach.

　　《红周刊》：在您看来，原油期货的暴跌会对美国股债市场产生怎样的影响？

　　Weekly on Stocks: In youropinion， how will the collapse of crude oil futures affect the U.S. equity andbond markets？

　　罗杰斯：主要是对石油公司和石油钻探公司不利，因为显然它们会大幅亏损。对美国老百姓(行情603883,诊股)有利，那些需要石油来发电、为汽车加油、使用空调或有其他用途的人们会受益。对中国有利。对日本、韩国或任何石油消费国都有利。这对石油公司或产油国不利，但显然对其他人有利。

　　美国股市有相当大的一部分是石油公司和石油钻探公司，所以这部分经济会受到冲击。由于这类公司占比较大，所以会对大市产生影响。但美国股市不是只有石油，诱发美国股市下跌的因素也不仅是石油，还有肺炎疫情。

　　Rogers:It’smainly terrible for oil companies and oil drilling companies， because obviouslythey are going to have a lot less money. It is good for American citizens，people who use oil for electricity， or cars， or air conditioning or whatever.It’s good for China. It’s good for Japan， Korea， and any oil consuming country.This is not good for oil companies or oil producing countries. But it is certainly good for everybody else.

　　A large part of the USstock market is made up of oil companies and oil drilling companies. So thatpart of the American economy will suffer. Since it’s a large part， it will havean effect on the overall market. However， the factors that make the Americanstock market going down are not just oil， but also the outbreak of the COVID-19.

　　《红周刊》：从美国政府数据来看，美国原油储备在3月份整个市场开始下跌的时候不断买入原油，您如何看美国原油储备的动作？

　　Weekly on Stocks: According to U.S. government data， U.S. crude oilreserves continued to buy oil in March as the overall market began to fall.What do you think of the actions taken by U.S. crude oil reserves？

　　罗杰斯：特朗普这样做是为了选票。众所周知，他正在失去产油区的选票。但其实所有国家都应该这样做。石油崩盘了，油价下跌了，如果中国、德国或任何其他国家，如果它们没有足够的储备来应对紧急状况，都应该马上进场去买石油并存放在自己的储油罐里。

　　Rogers: Trump is doing that because hewants to get votes. As everyone knows， he’s losing votes in the oil producingareas. Although， it’s something that all countries should be doing. Oil hascollapsed. Oil prices have fell down. If China， Germany or any other countryhave not enough reserves of oil for emergencies， they should be stepping in andbuying oil now and putting it in their own storage tanks.

　　《红周刊》：疫情使得各国全球供应链有了新的认识，美、日等国政府一些高官鼓励跨国企业将生产线迁回本土，这被市场理解为“逆全球化”，您如何看待这种现象？

　　Weekly on Stocks: The epidemichas led to a new understanding of global supply chains in various countries，and some senior government officials in the US and Japan have encouragedmultinational companies to relocate their production lines back to their homecountries， which is understood by the market as "ReverseGlobalization". How do you think about this？

　　罗杰斯：很不幸，历史上确实有过这样的时刻。有时国家们会变得更开放、更国际化，有时它们变得更封闭。我想在长达几十年的开放化之后，世界现在有了封闭的趋势。这不是一件好事。在1930年代大危机时期就出现过这种状态，它导致了战争，以及其他许多问题。现在也有这种趋势。我希望它不会长久。许多美国公司都在搬回美国，但在美国开办企业的成本是非常昂贵的，产品质量却未必同样好。目前事态或许就是如此，这很不好，无论是对我的孩子，还是对这个世界。

　　Rogers: Unfortunately， there have indeedbeen such moments in history. Sometimes countries become more open andinternational， sometimes they become more closed. I think after decades-longopenness， the world now has a tendency to be closed， which is not a good trend.Such state existed during the Great Depression of the 1930s， which led to war，among many other problems. There is also a trend towards this now. I hope itwon’t last long. Many US companies are moving back to the US， but the cost ofstarting a business in the US is quite expensive and the quality of the productmay not be as good. That may be the case with the current state of affairs， andit's bad， both for my children and for the world.

　　《红周刊》：部分职业投资人开始担忧疫情后中美贸易摩擦再度升级所带来的潜在风险，您是否有类似的担忧？

　　Weekly on Stocks: Someprofessional investors are beginning to worry about the potential risks ofrenewed escalation of trade frictions between the US and China following theepidemic， do you have similar concerns？

　　罗杰斯：美国现在的所作所为非常糟糕，极度不理智。特朗普或许认为贸易战是对美国有好处的，但贸易战从来就没有为任何人、任何国家带来过好处。特朗普或许不知道这一点，如果他知道，那就是过于自大了。

　　我痛恨贸易战。我是美国人，所以很不想看到现在的局面。发动贸易战完全是不理智的行为。它会伤害到这两个国家。我希望美国政府能更理智一点。到目前为止，中国的表现都更加克制、谨慎。

　　现在市场状况已经很差了，而贸易战会使它变得更差。我之前说过，如果政客们开始接连犯错，那么经济形势会越来越差，越来越差！他们是有可能继续犯错的。如果特朗普真的发动贸易战，在今年晚些时候或者明年，那么市场走向可能会比我预期的还要糟糕。我说过，这次危机将是我有生以来最糟糕的一次熊市。贸易战对任何人都是绝对没有任何好处的。

　　Rogers: The measures and actions of theUS are extremely poor and irrational. Probably Mr. Trump would think trade warsare good for the US， but trade wars have never been good for anyone and anycountry. Mr. Trump may not know this， and if he does， he is being arrogant.

　　I hate trade wars. I'm an American， soI'd hate to see the current situation. Waging a trade war is a completelyirrational act. It will hurt both countries. I wish the US government would bemore sensible. So far， China has been more restrained and cautious.

　　The market conditions are alreadyterrible now， and a trade war would make it even worse. As I mentioned before，if politicians started making mistakes consecutively， the economic situationswould be getting even worse! And it’s highly possible that their mistakes wouldcontinue. If Mr. Trump does start atrade war， later in the year or next year， the market conditions would be evenworse than my expectation. Just like what I said， this crisis would be theworst bear market of my life. Trade wars are absolutely no good for anyone.

　　《红周刊》：接下来和您探讨一些投资理念的问题。您很节俭，您的好朋友也是著名投资大师约翰·邓普顿的“抠门”也很出名，节俭是成功的投资人必备的品质吗？

　　Weekly on Stocks: You're afrugal person， so as your great friend John Templeton， a famous investmentmaster famous for frugalness. Do you think thrift is a necessary quality forsuccessful investors？

　　罗杰斯：节俭是帮助成功的一个重要因素。我很早就给我女儿们买了储蓄罐，并且告诉她们拿到零花钱要存在里面。我对她们说，钱是用来储蓄的，而用来投资的钱不应该花掉；如果你已经有了一定的存款，需要在该花的时候再去花。目前为止我的女儿们做的不错，她们总是把钱存起来。当储蓄罐装满了，我们就把这些钱存到银行户头里。我一直在教育我的孩子们要懂得储蓄，并且节俭一些。或许二三十年后你可以问问她们，我这样做对不对。我知道许多人花的钱比赚的多，负债为生，而很多人的人生、婚姻都因此毁掉了。如果你问我，我会说钱是用来存的，没有足够的储蓄时不要随意开销。当然这是我的理念，别人有别人的。

　　Rogers:Thrift is usually benefit success than anything. One of the first things Ibought for my daughters were piggy banks. I told them that money is to be putinto the piggy bank. I want to teach them that money is to be saved andinvested money is not used to be spent. After you save your money， if you wantto spend the money later， you can. So far， when my daughter get money， theyoften put it in their piggy banks. After the piggy bank is full， we go to thebig bank to put the money in the big bank. I try to teach my children to saveand to be thrifty. You can ask them after 20 or 30 years if I did it right. Iknow many people spend more money than they have， and many lives and marriagesget messed up because they have money problems. Money is to be saved， not to bespent until you have enough， if you ask me. That’s my way， you do it your way.

　　《红周刊》：在您看来，订阅优秀的读物，定期阅读对投资很重要。您的很多交易决定也都是从刊物中得到了“灵感”。可以分享一下，您目前最常阅读的刊物是什么吗？

　　Weekly on Stocks: In youropinion， subscribing to excellent readings and reading them regularly isimportant for investing. And many of your trading decisions are also"inspired" from such readings. Could you share with us what’re thepublications that you’re reading most currently？

　　罗杰斯：我只能读英文内容，我会读《金融时报》，以及其他国家的一些报纸。不过现在网上可以看到一切信息，只需要上网就能够了解全球发生的一切，因此我不再读报纸了。我会上网了解关于中国、韩国还有俄罗斯的事情；我可以在网上查找我感兴趣的任何国家和任何行业的相关讯息。

　　不过我教我的女儿们，一定要多维度地了解事情。如果想看英文资讯，可以看中国的中国国际电视台，英国的BBC，韩国的KBS，还有俄罗斯的RT。在网络上，这些咨询应有尽有，我告诉我的孩子们，如果想详尽的了解事情，这些都要看。她们认为我说的对。如果你只看CNN，并认为它向你传达它的讯息是绝对正确的，但这是不可能的。

　　所以我们要多从一些渠道了解更全面的信息，去看5个、或者6个媒体的报道，然后再自己思考哪些信息是正确而真实的。这不容易，不过多年来我一直这样做，现在也在教我的小孩这样做。媒体发声时，他们都认为自己是正确的，但没有人一直正确，所以我们要有自己的判断。

　　Rogers:I can only read in English， so I read Financial Times and English newspapersfrom other countries. Now everything is on the internet， so I can read thingsconveniently from all over the world； I don’t read newspapers anymore. I readabout China， Korea and Russia on the internet； I can read about any country andany industry I interested in.

　　Itry to teach my children that they should read from many sources. If you onlyspeak English， you can watch CGTN from China， BBC from England， RT from Russia，and KBS from Korea. On the internet， you can watch in English many sources ofinformation. I have taught my daughters that they should watch them all. Everyone of them thinks it’s correct. If you only watch CNN， you get information itdeems accurate， but this can’t be always true.

　　Thus，we need to get information from more sources. We can watch five or six TVnetworks from different countries， then we figure out what is really happeningby ourselves. It’s not easy. I have been doing this for 40 or 50 years. Now I’mtrying to teach my children to do the same. Media convey the information theydeem right. They all think they are right， but they can’t all be right. Weshould figure out what’s right by thinking independently.

　　《红周刊》：对于中国的职业投资人，如果想在基本面和价值投资继续深挖，在学习和提高方面，您的建议是什么？

　　Weekly on Stocks: What is your advice to professional investors inChina who want to continue exploration in the general situation and valueinvestment in terms of learning and improvement？

　　罗杰斯：我会做我刚刚说过的事情，尽可能获取更多的视角。我很喜欢中国国际电视台，不过我也知道他们给出的信息不可能一直完全正确，所以我也会去寻找来自其他国家、其他媒体的信息和视角。即使进行过这种全面了解，我还是会做出错误决定；但全面了解依然是必要的。在中国，相对不是那么容易获取外界信息，但我鼓励所有投资人都应尽可能获得更多、更全面的信息和视野。如果你只看CNN的报道，你获得的理解一定失之准确；如果只看其他任何一个国家的媒体，也都会导致同样的偏颇；但如果你看的足够多，那么你获得的信息就会帮助你做出一个准确的判断。

　　Rogers:As for me， I’ll try to get as many perspectives as I can. I love CGTN， aChinese English language network， but I know their information can’t beaccurate all the time. Thus， I will watch others to get more comprehensiveinformation and more sweeping view from other nations. Even then， I makemistakes. But it’s crucial to try to get as many perspectives as I can. I knowinformation on the network in China is not as open as in some other nations；nonetheless， I would urge all investors to get as many sources of informationand perspectives as they can. If you only watch CNN in America， you would bebiased； if you only watch RT in Russia， or any other media of a nation， youwould be biased， too. However， if you have enough sources of information， youmay get a better judgement on what’s really going on.

　　《红周刊》：最后给我们读者说些您的寄语吧！

　　Weekly on Stocks: As we’re approaching to the end of the interview，could you please share more with our readers？

　　罗杰斯：一定要谨慎些。在未来两三年乃至更长的时间里，我们的日子都不会太好过，所以要谨慎地对待投资。不要草率地去投资那些你并不了解的领域。如果眼下没有合适的投资机会，耐心等待，把钱放在银行里，这样更安全。在接下来的几年里，会有很多人失去他们的资产，要警惕。

　　并且保持学习。如果你能保持学习，有足够的知识来支撑你的行动，你就更有可能在这场危机中坚持下来，甚至有可能赚到钱。在上世纪30年代大危机中，许多人赚到了钱，所以我们也有机会在经济不景气的时候赚钱，只要你知道你在做什么，并